Jan 19, 2023·edited Jan 19, 2023

The WTO aspect of this is particularly interesting to me as the turning away has both hegemonic and polarization aspects. The failure of the TPP, which was widely seen as competitive with China, straightforwardly fits this line of argument. But for the WTO there's been a loss of faith as China has successfully used the system in ways that lead to a job shock in the United States and facilitated its own economic and military rise.

I suppose the failure here is one to build a coalition within the United States to replace the Washington Consensus. In a polarized environment the U.S. can disrupt institutions it built but can't muster the breadth of support to pursue an update to them.

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Yes, I think this is important as well. There's a sense in which we're seeing now the degree to which it's a "rules-based order" and to which it's a "US-based order", and the notion of weaponization of rules is ... revealing in that regard! (Perhaps the rules could have been more carefully crafted, for instance.) The coalitional politics of this are similarly interesting, as you note: where DOES one find a pro-open-hegemonic coalition?

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