Everything Has a Price

Murphy's Law and presidential gifts

By now, you’ve probably heard that the Trump administration plans (per ABC News) to accept a gift of a luxury 747-800 from the ruling house of Qatar. The gift will be accepted by President Trump on behalf of the United States as a new Air Force One and will be transferred to the Trump presidential library foundation shortly before Trump leaves office. The gift is reportedly to be announced when my president visits my country next week.

Needless to say, this is very bad for the rule of law in the United States. The president of the United States should not be in the business of shaking down rulers for investments in family businesses, much less for transferring big, beautiful airplanes to his personal foundation. It is also a very bad indicator that other countries are — I think correctly — assuming that the way to the favor of the United States is through enriching its chief magistrate. (I should also note that this is the sort of canny move that offers short-term advantages to a small state dealing with a 900-lb elephant, but that it also carries severe long-term risks—and that this diagnosis means that it’s worse than it looks, because multigenerational ruling dynasties are not in the habit of making silly long-term decisions.)

One hears rumors, from time to time, of a bidding war between various Gulf countries for the favor of the pasha of Mar-a-Lago. The price has just gone up — as have my estimates of what, exactly, is at stake. (Is this about Gaza? Iran? Preventing another round of intra-Gulf Arab hostilities? All of the above?)

It is also very bad for national security professionals in the United States, who are now dealing with the likelihood that the president will fly on a “flying palace” that, uh, has not been secured by U.S. intelligence against hostile intrusions. (Although given the track record of U.S. intelligence agencies it may have already been wired for eavesdropping by the NSA anyhow.) As a reminder, one of the putative roles of Air Force One is that it is supposed to serve as a communications link keeping the president in touch with military commanders — including commanders of U.S. nuclear forces. Perhaps they’ll set up a Signal chat.

It is, however, very good for me, in that it allows me to say “I told you so” once again. (All right, if you’re reading this, you probably already agreed with me.) I have been banging on about how the presidential library system offers quite a lot of opportunities for dishonest graft (as well as the more honest kind — look at the donor walls in a library the next time you visit one) for years. There’s this interview with The Guardian and then there’s these three pieces:

• a 2024 essay in this newsletter about how a lawsuit settled by, ironically, ABC News was one way for Trump to fund his library:

A lot of folks are criticizing this as “obeying in advance”, or whatever resistance slogan is deemed to be applicable. As more sophisticated observers, we should be open to the notion that the truth is even grimmer, rather than substituting sloganeering for analysis. Specifically, as an organization that’s part of both the ABC network, which relies on federally regulated access to airwaves (still) to reach its audience, and part of the broader Disney empire, ABC News is vulnerable to federal influence in a number of ways (targeted investigations of affiliates, yanking its access to the airwaves, scrutiny of merger proposals, SEC investigations of its corporate officers, etc). This may not be so much obeying in advance as evidence of hints of blackmail and coercion.

• A 2020 essay in The Washington Post about the structural problems of the library system

With a big war chest, the hallowed "permanent campaign" of the modern presidency could achieve its final form in a foundation dedicated to burnishing Trump's record. Such a foundation could easily generate enough revenue to support endless functions at Trump resorts, hotels and Mar-a-Lago. It could even prove a launchpad for political careers for the next generation of Trumps — or, given that the president would still be in his 70s, for Trump to pull a Grover Cleveland-esque comeback himself.

• And a 2020 essay in Cato Unbound about the democratic challenges of ex-presidents and their ability to enrich themselves

As one looks at the donor walls of a presidential library, featuring the names of prominent corporations, wealthy individuals, and foreign governments, one cannot help but think of Hamilton’s warnings about what an avaricious man might do as president. It also brings to mind the inadequacy of the standard political-science assumption that politicians are “single-minded seekers of re-election.”[8] As an analytic shorthand, that assumption does useful theoretical work. It enables theories in which ambition for office would lead candidates to curb their excesses, adopt policies that appeal to wide audiences, and subject politicians to the stern discipline of public attention, lest they be caught out by an ambitious rival pursuing the same goal. … As presidents think about how to provide for a legacy project—and a retinue—they will note that current practice not only tolerates but practically encourages raising giant sums from donors, including foreign governments

This last essay probably needs to be recast into something approximating a standard social-science article, because I think these temptations really do matter a lot but they’re dramatically underappreciated. And now we’re seeing how these sorts of temptations can seep into every aspect of governance.

If anything, I just didn’t let my imagination go far enough. I should have pushed Murphy’s Law more clearly: “If there are two or more ways to do something and one of those results in a catastrophe, then someone will do it that way.” Eventually, if there is a way to abuse a nice, normal, taken-for-granted way of modest back-scratching, like giving a million or twenty to a presidential library, someone will take that precedent and run with it — all the way to the endzone.

(Let me note here that I have no idea, legally, how this will be structured. Presidents can accept gifts on behalf of the American people but once accepted they are supposed to pay fair market value to purchase them. I’m unaware of any legal authorities by which a gift of this value could be transferred to a presidential library foundation — the gifts you see at libraries are on loan from the National Archives and Records Administration, which retains custody of them. It is, of course, notable that Secretary of State Marco Rubio is also acting Archivist of the United States, who is also the official responsible for negotiating with presidential library foundations. Of course, that might mean that we end up with an Air Force One administratively owned by NARA!)

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I think a lot of people are going to call this gift (or even that it was seriously considered) a “wake-up call” or an “alarm” or some other euphemism. Man, if you need a wake-up call after (gestures) all that, then you’re in a coma. It is, instead, a confirmation.

The truth is that the United States is now functionally a kleptocracy, different from a regime like that of Mobutu or Ferdinand Marcos only in potential and scope — and in the momentum of certain institutions that have not yet been brought to heel. But the problem of rot in American institutions predates and is separate from Trump, even if he is the apotheosis of U.S. crony capitalism. The hubris of my youth — specifically, the end-of-history-Lexus-and-Olive-Tree-indispensable-nation orthodoxy — is deader than Marley, either Jacob or Bob.

That’s not to say all hope is lost. For instance, Marcos lost power! So did Mobutu, less happily, of course. There’s certainly a way to democratize the United States while also running an effective corruption purge. It is, however, to say that people need to be completely clear in what they are dealing with, and to be forthright about the sort of reform — genuine reformation — of institutions that will be required to deal with the events of the coming four years. The long national nightmare is just beginning; the Constitution does not work — at least not without great efforts to vindicate whatever promise it still holds.