What Is Happening?
The world sucks and it's confusing! It's okay to be confused!
Off the top of my head, here’s a smattering of news stories:
The president of South Korea tried to do an autogolpe by declaring martial law; he was stopped by a courageous parliament; and now that same parliament won’t impeach him (but he says he’s very sorry and won’t do it again)
Syria is about to be overthrown by a group that may or may not be radical Islamists, which appears to have taken everyone by surprise, including the actual participants in this war
We spent a couple of months assuming that Iran and Israel were on the brink of war and yet they seem to be moving with all the alacrity of me approaching a peer review deadline (“gee, Mr. Editor, can I just have another week?”)
France has a government that’s fallen because ?? after their president called a snap election in order to ??
Ireland had an election in which someone won, maybe?
In Romania, a fringe candidate came from nowhere to advance to the second round of the presidential election, but their supreme court annulled the election (you can do that?????) and now as far as I can tell the status of Romanian democracy is ????????????!????
Donald Trump has a Schrodinger’s cat-policy toward aiding Ukraine. Maybe, but maybe not, but possibly, but possibly not!
Pete Hegseth: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Apparently Kamala Harris’s team spent a billion dollars and uh forgot to turn out Black neighborhoods (gift link, if you gave any money to the Dems last cycle…you may not do so next cycle after reading this!)
Someone whacked a health insurance CEO in the middle of Midtown and a) apparently is getting away with it even though we all know his face and b) boy! a bunch of you folks hate health insurance CEOs!
Russia’s about to see a civil war/gangland war between Chechnya and Dagestan over corporate raiding / love affairs
Indiana University is good at football
What in the hell is going on?
I hold a Ph.D. in government, specializing in international relations; I live in the Middle East; I lived in Ireland; I’ve published on election interference; I’ve studied U.S. presidential politics; I teach a course on Russia (long story); and I graduated IU. I have no idea what is going on, and I urge you to assume that anyone who claims to know what is going on has no idea at all.
I think we need more of this honesty! If you’d done an explainer on any of these topics between one week and six months ago, you would have been wildly wrong—and I don’t mean just casual fans: I mean the actual participants themselves had no idea that any of this stuff would happen. Remember when there was a whole subplot about the Trump team frittering away its GOTV operation funds and how that could turn the election? Well, guess what! What if both campaigns did that?
What I mean is that: sometimes the smart money is still dumb.
This is a good time to lay out my revised plan for subscriptions for this newsletter! After all, I’ve just informed you that I know nothing—which, according to Socrates, makes me the wisest man alive. Wouldn’t you subscribe to a newsletter by the wisest man alive?
Here’s the plan going forward.
I’ve been reluctant to have paywalled content because as a scholar, especially at a public institution, I’ve felt a responsibility to share my knowledge with the world. However, there are topics and themes that don’t fit into my areas of expertise, and those are the ones that I’ll be writing about weekly(ish) and paywalling for paying subscribers only. I realize that’s kind of a weird pitch, but I don’t want to be in a position where I’m gatekeeping the knowledge stuff but I’d also like to have a way to support my Macbook habit.
Paying subscribers will also be able to participate in polls to determine what I’ll write about. Polls will run monthly-ish and will definitely inform my editorial judgment.
As always, paying subscribers will be the only ones allowed to comment on every post.
Finally, those of you who pay for the highest membership tier will be able to commission a post—a full-length essay that will run here. I don’t expect many takers but, hey, if that’s you, let’s talk!
Agreed! To see if wise graybeards knew any better, I did a session with Michael Mandelbaum and Dick Betts two weeks ago, and had Jack Snyder come into my class last week. Confirmed nobody knows nothing (at least definitively). Told the students it’s a great time to enter the field! 😂
In a world where nothing seems to make sense anymore, perhaps there’s a pattern waiting to be uncovered. Regarding IU football-I think I’ve stumbled upon the reason.
Earlier this fall, I found myself in an end zone hospitality suite during the IU–Western Illinois game, seated next to President Whitten. Behind me, a tall, charismatic, middle-aged man was offering an absolutely masterful commentary on the game. Every player, every coach (including OC, QB coach, etc) every play—he dissected it all with encyclopedic precision and decades of historical context.
The man? Mr. Whitten. Yes, President Whitten’s husband. Clearly, the true puppet master of IU football. Not Dolson, not Cignetti, not President Whitten herself. No, it’s someone with her ear, a profound love for the game, and a relentless determination to see IU rise above its usual mediocrity. I mean who the hell with an unmatched passion and knowledge for football wants their spouse leading a prominent university with a shit football team, right?!
If this can explain IU football’s uncharacteristic greatness this year, then maybe, just maybe, Professor Musgrave can uncover the reasons behind the other baffling events shaping our world. After all, if IU football can make sense, anything can.